After big wins, NDA sitting comfortably for 2027 presidential election | India News
New Delhi: BJPWith its first win in West Bengal with more than two-thirds of the seats, and its growing numbers in the Rajya Sabha, its super-majority wins in a string of assembly elections will allow the party to set the terms for next year’s presidential election, after losing its majority in the Lok Sabha polls, casting doubt on its dominant run since 2014.Its overwhelming dominance with allies in big states like Maharashtra, Bengal and Bihar – the three assemblies with the most weight among states after UP in the electoral college for the President – will come in handy in neutralizing the losses it has suffered in LS where its tally has dropped from 303 to 240 in 2024. All elected members, MPs and lawyers quit. Electoral College. Parliaments and assemblies have equal voting shares, but while each MP’s vote has equal value (it was 700 in 2022), the weight of an MLA’s vote depends on the size of the population (according to the 1971 census) his constituency represents.A UP MLA’s vote at 208 was almost 30 times that of a Sikkim MLA, with a value of 7 in 2022. This number will remain more or less the same next year as the census figure is a constant and hence the strength of an assembly without vacancies. The existence of the J&K Legislative Assembly, which was dissolved in 2018 and was not part of the last presidential election, will be a factor, albeit a marginal one.The fall in its LS numbers reduced the BJP’s vote in the electoral college by 44,100, from a total strength of 10,86,431 in 2022. A weak run in the assembly elections could have compromised its term-setting authority, even with allies, as has been the case in previous governments, when the Congress or the Short Congress was the dominant party.After the LS polls, when the BJP relied on the TDP and JD(U) to cross the 272-mark for majority, the opposition was quick to call the two regional parties its “crutches” for survival and predicted that the government would fall soon, claiming that the result would prove to be the launching point for a strong run from 2014 and the 2014 assembly elections.For more than two years, the BJP has been sitting pretty.
UP is important in prej polls with MLAs weighing 83,800 votes
All elected members of Parliament and the Assembly, excluding nominated legislators, make up the Electoral College. Parliament and the Assembly have equal voting shares, but while each MP’s vote has equal value (it was 700 in 2022), the weight of an MLA’s vote depends on the size of the population (according to the 1971 census) his constituency represents.A UP MLA’s vote at 208 was almost 30 times that of a Sikkim MLA, with a value of 7 in 2022. This number will remain more or less the same next year as the census figure is a constant and hence the strength of an assembly without vacancies.Its fall in the LS row reduced the BJP vote to 44,100 in the electoral college, with a total strength of 10,86,431 in 2022. A weak run in the assembly elections could compromise the power to set terms with allies.After the LS polls, when the BJP relied on the TDP and JD(U) to cross the 272-mark for majority, the opposition termed the two regional parties as “crutches” for survival and predicted that the government would soon fall, claiming the result would prove to be the launching point in its strong run since 2014.For more than two years, the BJP has been sitting pretty. It won Haryana massively against the odds and increased the NDA’s strength in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly from 150 to 237 during the last presidential election and from 125 to 202 in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. West Bengal now has 207 MLAs compared to 77. Ahead of the presidential election in July next year, the most important is the UP Electoral College for over 83,800 votes.
