UAE ने OPEC ही नहीं छोड़ा, वेस्ट एशिया का पावर गेम बदल दिया – UAE opec exit middle east power game vs saudi arabia israel india usa ntcpdr
On the shining surface of the Persian Gulf everything always seems calm – from above. But under the same water, tension, suspicion and strategic currents keep flowing in many layers. The story of United Arab Emirates i.e. UAE is also similar. From outside it seems to be the world’s brightest business hub, but inside it a big decision was brewing – to exit OPEC (Organization of Oil Exporting Countries).
At first glance, this decision seems like a small controversy that the UAE wanted to sell five million barrels of oil per day, whereas it was given a quota of about three and a half million barrels. But the real story begins here, not ends. This is not a dispute over one and a half million barrels, but a declaration to challenge the decades-old regional leadership. In which it is said that UAE is not just a small Gulf country, but a global power center.
UAE’s decision, American desire too!
When the decision to withdraw from OPEC was being taken in Abu Dhabi, its echo was not limited to the Gulf only. Washington was also watching it carefully. America OPEC has long been considered a “cartel”. A group that controls oil prices as per its own and sometimes influences the global oil market in collaboration with countries like Russia.
In such a situation, UAE’s exit from OPEC is a strategic opportunity for America. This will weaken the collective strength of OPEC, there will be a rift in Arab-Russian oil partnership and oil
The ability to use it as a “political weapon” will reduce. Therefore, even though this decision is of UAE, its echo is also heard as a victory of American foreign policy.
Experts believe that behind this big step of UAE, there is a special agreement with America, which is being called ‘Dollar-Dirham Swap Agreement’. In simple words, under this agreement, America has guaranteed to provide US dollars directly and immediately to UAE if needed. When iran When a war-like situation arose, the UAE’s currency ‘Dirham’ was under threat. In such a situation, this swap deal with America gave a security cover to the coffers of UAE. Till now UAE was bound by the strict rules of OPEC, due to which it was not able to increase oil production as per its wish. The ‘dollar guarantee’ received from America assured the UAE that even if it leaves OPEC and there are fluctuations in the oil market, its economy will not waver. If the currency of UAE remains at par with the dollar, then people doing business there will also have confidence. On the basis of this trust, UAE said goodbye to OPEC restrictions and chose its independent economic path.
‘UAE app’ hanging
If you think of UAE as just a country, then you are missing its real strength. It’s an “app” – a platform where the world’s businesses run without too many questions.
When sanctions were imposed on Iran, its business traveled from here to the world. Many business deals between India and Pakistan continued to be completed through UAE. Even the banned Russian oil reached the market from here through “shadow tanker”.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi had established themselves as neutral, stable and secure hubs. This was the reason why big companies of Europe and America used to operate from here. Real estate was booming, tourism was at its peak and the UAE had become a “perfect business machine”.
But then the conflict with Iran gave a jolt to this machine. The attacks not only damaged the oil facilities but also the trust on which the UAE’s entire branding rested. Suddenly corporates started exploring their options – going back to Singapore, Hong Kong and in some cases Europe.
UAE, which used to call itself neutral, is now American-IsraelStarted appearing in the camp. And this is where his biggest challenge begins – “Is he still that safe and stable?”
Saudi Vision 2030 falling behind
There is another character in this story- saudi arabia. Once UAE’s closest ally, now its biggest competitor.
Saudi Arabia’s entire bet is on its ambitious ‘Vision 2030’. To fund this project it needs higher oil prices. Therefore, he follows the strategy of keeping prices high by keeping production low.
On the other hand, UAE’s model is different. It has diversified its economy. Production costs are extremely low here, and it has invested more than $122 billion to achieve production capacity of 5 million barrels per day by 2030. But OPEC’s quotas kept it limited to between 2.6 to 3.1 million barrels.
This “oil lying underground” is a risk for Abu Dhabi – because demand for fossil fuels is expected to decline by 2040. That means if it is not sold now, it may not be possible to sell later. This thinking turns the distance between Saudi and UAE into conflict.
Buildup in Yemen, Somaliland
The oil dispute is just one part. The real rift occurred simultaneously on several fronts. In Yemen, the UAE supported the Southern Transitional Council – a separatist group pitted against Saudi allies. The situation worsened so much that Saudi Arabia even carried out airstrikes on UAE-supported bases and military resources, especially around Mukalla Port.
On the other hand, tension regarding Somaliland also increased. When Israel recognized it, the Saudis found the move destabilizing – and they also became suspicious of the UAE’s role.
After this, there was a round of allegations and counter-allegations between the two countries for two months through social media, diplomatic channels and lobbying in Washington.
Saudi ‘Mandwali’ in Iran War
Then came the war with Iran – a turning point where the paths of the two countries completely diverged. Both were together in the beginning. But as the attacks increased, Saudi Arabia started trying to reach a diplomatic agreement with Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey. Without taking UAE along. The deal with Iran was also struck.
UAE’s view was different. He had been directly attacked, so he wanted “full security guarantee” in any agreement. He felt that the Saudis were ready to make a hasty compromise, even if it posed a threat to the future. This is where the trust was broken. After Israel, Iran also attacked UAE the most. It was like sprinkling salt on a burn. And UAE has decided that now it will choose its own path.
UAE+I2 (Israel+India)
Long before the Iran War, when confidence in the Arab world was wavering, UAE forged new relationships outside. He normalized relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords. This was a historic, but controversial step. But, he got its benefit during the Iranian attacks. The American Patriot system was proving costly and less effective in stopping this, so Israel deployed its Iron Dome in UAE. Out of the country for the first time.
Parallel to this, the relationship with India became stronger. 43 lakh Indians live in UAE – the largest foreign community. The personal trust between Narendra Modi and Mohammed bin Zayed has taken this relationship to a different level. From free trade agreements to security cooperation, both the countries have now become strategic partners. There is even an unspoken message – an attack on UAE will be considered an attack on India’s interests.
UAE’s ‘Abraham Challenge’
UAE is not only bringing political but also cultural change. It is carving a distinct identity in the Arab world.
Swaminarayan temple was built in Abu Dhabi, permission to build a church was discussed, and open relations were established with Israel. All this goes against the traditional Islamic thinking that has deep roots in the Arab world.
This is where the issue of “Abraham Challenge” arises. While Muslims say “Ibrahim”, Jews and Christians say “Abraham”. UAE has given itself a global, multi-cultural identity by adopting this “Abraham”. Even if he has to face criticism for this.
Will the crisis on OPEC deepen further?
UAE’s exit from OPEC is not an isolated incident. Qatar has already taken this step in 2019. If UAE proves that it can remain economically profitable even by staying outside OPEC, then other countries can also follow this path. This is the reason why this decision is not just a matter of OPEC losing a member, but can become a threat to its existence.
This whole story tells us that UAE no longer wants to remain just a “business hub”. He wants to establish himself as a free power centre. Where decisions are taken according to his own needs and future strategy. Not on the strength of Saudi bullying.
Oil is definitely a character here, but the real story is much bigger than that – it is a story of a changing world, breaking alliances and a new balance of power. And UAE has chosen its role in this story – now the world has to decide whether it will go with it or against it.
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