Stalin: Stalin holds edge, but dark horse Vijay keeps rivals guessing | India News
victoryIts TVK can tilt the balance.The campaign began as a contest over governance and welfare and gradually sharpened into a larger political argument about identity, federalism and the place of states in the Union. Thanks to Stalin’s efforts to turn it into a central-state war, the campaign maintained a nationalistic tone, divided by Tamil Nadu’s distinctive political idiom.DMK The campaign began with a strong coalition, a governance track record and visible benefits of welfare delivery. Chief minister and DMK president Stalin, who symbolically launched his campaign from his father M Karunanidhi’s native Tiruvarur, put forward schemes for women and youth. As the days passed, his messages shifted to relentless attacks on the BJP-led central government. Increasingly, Stalin reminded voters that the Center had done “injustice” to the state and warned voters of what they might do if his ally, the ADMK, returned to power.Gradually, monthly cash transfers and free bus rides for women and free breakfast schemes for school students slipped behind a sharp political pitch. At the height of the campaign, Stalin donned a black shirt and dramatically set fire to a copy of the boundary bill, framing the election as a defense of Tamil Nadu’s rights against Delhi. Yet, in his quiet, direct outreach – his morning walks and surprise visits with beneficiaries – he returns to the language of welfare and distribution.In the latter stages of the campaign, Stalin tried to strike that balance. “My first signature after being re-elected will be on the order to distribute Rs 8,000 coupons to women,” he said.Deputy Chief Minister Udayanidhi Stalin Across the state with van-top lectures. While Stalin spoke in sacred Tamil, Udayanidhi opted for a more conversational, witty style, often aimed at EPS. Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharg, away from AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, campaigned for the alliance, but rumors of a disconnect started as Rahul and Stalin did not share a dais.The NDA has brought its own national firepower through roadshows and rallies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Although Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu campaigned briefly, the most consistent promoter of the alliance was the EPS.Positioning itself as a self-made leader, EPS kept its messaging simple and direct, focusing on women’s protection, drugs and DMK’s alleged governance failures. Starting his post-model code campaign for BJP candidate Tamilisai Soundarajan in Mylapore, he traveled widely, initially attacking Stalin and Udayanidhi. After repeatedly calling the DM a “BJP dass”, and taunting Udayanidhi with an old picture of him falling at the feet of VK Sasikala, the EPS launched a personal attack on the Karunanidhi family.The arithmetic of the coalition – bringing together the BJP, PMK and AMM – added up to the NDA. There were reports of unhappiness over the exclusion of former BJP state chief K Annamalai from the candidate list, but he eventually joined the campaign. State BJP president Nainor Nagendran had his voice drowned out by the high-decibel presence of national leaders, while PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss focused on mobilizing Vania’s support in northern and western districts for the NDA.And wildcard victories continue to wreak havoc. Campaigning sparingly but drawing large crowds, he tried to frame the contest between the DMK and TVK as one aimed at Stalin while avoiding direct attacks on the EPS and the BJP. Contesting Perambur and Trichy East and fielding candidates in 233 seats, his presence exceeded his limited campaign time.A TOI analysis of the last week of the campaign showed that Stalin spoke for 356 minutes, EPS for 800 minutes and Vijay for just 35 minutes. Still, the appearance of victory carries a high recall price — an indication that visibility and influence are no longer directly proportional in an age of spectacle politics.Both Stalin and the EPS largely chose to ignore the victory. The closest Stalin got to targeting him was when he urged voters in Perambu to choose between “an inaccessible newcomer who creates a drama” and “a leader who will be accessible and responsive”. Naam Tamilor Kachchi’s Seeman eloquent on the politics of Tamil identity and self-respect aimed at victory for the DMK and ADMK.All contestants took to social media with a vengeance, churning out hype, influencer videos and memes. Despite strong arguments against the perceived rise in crime and corruption, the ADMKled coalition could not turn anti-incumbency sentiment into a wave. If TVK gets away with anti-government votes — and fails to win big on its own — and if the average voter opts for continuity and welfare, the DMK could be on a strong wicket.
heated seat
EdappadiThis constituency in Salem district has long been home to ADMK general secretary EPS. He has won five of the eight elections he has fought here, including three in a row since 2011. Backed by his community, Palaniswami will feel confident about his chances here despite challenges from the DMK and fellow-enemies like O Panneerselvam and VK Sasikala.Past winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (ADMK)LalguriLima Rose Martin, wife of lottery baron Santiago Martin and the richest candidate in this election – she has declared assets worth over Rs 1,000 crore – is contesting here. He joined the ADMK only in February, but the ADMK rank and file worked overtime to ensure his victory. The DMK, which has won the seat eight times since 1971, has fielded a low-profile candidate to replace incumbent MLA Soundarpandian.Past winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)ColeathUrKolathur in Chennai has been represented by CM MK Stalin since its formation in 2011. In 2021, he defeated his ADMK rival by a margin of 70,000 votes. The DMK will rely on Stalin’s accessibility, governance record and the party’s organizational strength to sustain its winning run here. The opposition has highlighted local problems and governance flaws.Past Winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)Madurai CentralIT Minister Palanivel Thiagarajan is looking for a hat-trick of wins here. But he faces a fight as Sundar C of ADMK’s pro-ally Puthiya Niti Katchi (PNK). The actor-director’s wife Khushboo, an actor herself, added a touch of glamor to his campaign. TVK’s VMS Mustafa and NTK’s K Abdul Hakeem could split the minority vote, which could hurt the DMK.Past winners: 2011 (DMDK); 2016, 2021 (DMK)PeramburThis North Chennai seat is where actor Joseph Vijay is making his electoral debut. With a large working-class population, it was a Left bastion before becoming a DMK stronghold in recent years. In 2021 the incumbent Sekar won by a margin of over 54,000 votes. Vijay chose this seat as 40,000 voters have signed up on the TVP app and he is expected to win. On Dalits and Minorities.Past winners: 2011 (CPM); 2016 (ADMK); 2021 (DMK)Chepauk-TriplicaneChennai has this seat Has been with DMK since 2011. Udayanidhi Stalin, son of Deputy CM and CM MK Stalin, won his first election here in 2021 by over 69,000 votes. It has a significant number of Muslim voters who can shape the results. DMK focused on its welfare measures while the opposition talked about local grievances like parking problems, narrow roads etc.Past winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)
