IMD predicts ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall over the country amid growing risk of El Niño | India News
“Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall over the entire country is likely to be 92% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%,” IMD chief, Mrityunjay Mohapatra, said while releasing the first-phase long-range monsoon forecast.
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The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the entire country is 87 cm based on 1971-2020 data. Rainfall between 90-95% of LPA is considered ‘below normal’.The IMD forecast shows a 31% chance of ‘below normal’ rainfall, while a 35% chance of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) — a clear indication of a high probability of below normal rainfall in the country.While the Met department will release a more precise updated forecast on the spatial distribution of rainfall during the season (June-September) in the last week of May, the ‘probability forecast’ map it released on Monday clearly shows ‘below normal’ rainfall in the country’s ‘monsoon core zone’ – the region that India relies on for the most rainfall and the region we depend on for the most rainfall. operationThis scenario is likely to affect irrigation, potable water, reservoir capacity and hydropower potential in arid and semi-arid regions at a time when the country is already looking at higher input (diesel and fertilizer) costs for agriculture and overall higher energy consumption due to wars in West Asia.Low rainfall not only adversely affects the acreage of kharif crops (summer sowing) but also overall foodgrains production due to low soil moisture in rabi crops (winter sowing) and less water for irrigation in reservoirs, even though the country has taken several steps over the years to draw-proof its farm sector.Under the possible development of El Nino – a climatic condition associated with sea surface warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific – this year, there is a high probability of depressed rainfall in the second half of the monsoon (August-September). Other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), however, may come as saviors.
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A positive IOD leads to more rain. So, we expect it to counter the impact of El Nino in the second half of the monsoon season,” Mahapatra said.
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Currently, neutral IOD conditions exist in the Indian Ocean, and the latest climate model forecasts indicate that positive IOD conditions may develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season.Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere also affects monsoons. The IMD explained that the amount of snow cover in the last three months (January to March) was slightly less than normal. “Winter and spring snow cover extents in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as Eurasia, have a general inverse relationship with the southwest monsoon precipitation that follows the country,” it said.
