न सत्ता परिवर्तन हुआ, न यूरेनियम मिला और होर्मुज भी बंद… ईरान युद्ध हार रहे डोनाल्ड ट्रंप? – Despite Military Successes Donald Trump Struggles for Clear Victory Over Iran ntc dpmx
US President Donald Trump may have achieved many successes on the military front against Iran, but after three months the big question arising is whether he is losing the strategic battle of the war? Iran still maintains a strong hold on the Strait of Hormuz, has refused to make major concessions on its nuclear program and maintains its religious authority. In such a situation, many analysts believe that Trump has not been successful in achieving any of the targets he had set before the attack on Iran and after the temporary ceasefire.
Trump is continuously claiming victory over Iran, but his claim is beginning to look hollow. Talks and threats are continuing between the US and Iran regarding the peace agreement, while in the event of any new attack, Iran can retaliate in the entire region. Analysts say that this situation can prove harmful for America and its Gulf allies. On the other hand, despite suffering military and economic losses, Iran has shown that it has the ability to influence about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.
However, the crisis is not completely over yet and some experts believe that if the talks go in Trump’s favor then he can find a respectable way out for himself. But many other analysts are considering it a long-term strategic failure for Trump. Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator in the Middle East, told news agency Reuters, ‘After three months, it is clearly visible that for Trump this is not going to be a short and easy war but a long strategic failure. ‘This situation is also considered politically sensitive for Trump, because he himself has often been targeting his opponents by calling them losers.
Donald Trump struggling to subdue Iran
Despite being the head of the world’s most powerful army, Trump is struggling to defeat a country which is considered much weaker than America. However, Iran currently considers itself in a strong position. Analysts say Trump would now want to avoid any agreement that would seem like a retreat from his maximum demands or resemble the 2015 nuclear deal, which he canceled in his first term. Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Olivia Wells claimed that America has achieved or exceeded all its military objectives under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ against Iran. He said that President Trump has all options available.
Trump, who campaigned for a second term, promised to avoid unnecessary military intervention, but now he is embroiled in a conflict that could damage his foreign policy credibility. Meanwhile, Trump is also facing domestic pressure due to rising petrol prices in America and his declining approval rating. It is becoming a challenge for the Republican Party to maintain control over Congress before the midterm elections in November. Some analysts believe that Trump now has only two options – either get out of the crisis by accepting a weak agreement, or risk a long conflict by resuming military action against Iran.
According to experts, if diplomacy fails, Trump may try to move forward by claiming limited but swift military strikes as a final victory. Some analysts also believe that Trump may raise a new issue like Cuba to divert attention. At the same time, Trump’s supporters say that causing huge damage to Iran’s military capability is a major strategic success in itself. Alexander Gray, CEO of advisory firm ‘American Global Strategies’, said that this war has brought the Gulf countries closer to America and away from China.
Trump’s objective was not fulfilled in Iran war
This conflict has lasted twice as long as the six-week deadline set by Trump. Initially, American and Israeli attacks had caused huge damage to Iran’s missile capability, navy and many top leaders. But in response, Tehran closed Hormuz, increased energy prices and attacked Israel and Gulf countries. After this, Trump ordered a blockade of Iranian ports, but even after that Iran was not ready to bow down. Trump’s main goal was to end Iran’s nuclear program, but this objective has not been achieved yet. It is believed that Iran still has highly enriched uranium, which can be developed to the level of nuclear weapons in the future.
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and it should be given the right to enrich uranium. Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has directed that the country’s nearly weapons-grade uranium will not be sent abroad. Some experts believe that this war may motivate Iran to move faster towards developing nuclear weapons, so that it can ensure its security like North Korea. Apart from this, another objective of Trump – to weaken Iran-backed armed groups – has also not been fulfilled yet. After the war, a more radical leadership is expected to emerge in Iran, which still has missile and drone capabilities.
The conflict also strained America’s relations with its European allies, as many European countries refused to support a war that was not even consulted before starting. Analysts say that China and Russia have also understood from this conflict America’s military weaknesses and its challenges against asymmetric warfare strategies. Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote that the Iran crisis could prove to be a bigger blow to America’s global prestige than Vietnam and Afghanistan. He said, ‘It is no longer possible to return to the previous situation, nor will any final victory of America be able to compensate for that loss.’
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