Elections Exit Polls: Assembly election exit polls 2026: How accurate were predictions last time for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and others | India News
New Delhi: With the polls in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry now almost over, attention is quietly shifting to the much-awaited exit polls. Exit polls or opinion polls are usually released half an hour after polls close and give a basic idea of how people voted.Exit polls often form the first narrative of who will win, but they aren’t always accurate. In past elections, some have gotten the overall trend right, while others have been left out of the final results.
The last round of assembly elections across five states: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry and West Bengal, provides a useful benchmark.Exit polls for assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal last predicted:
Kerala
Exit polls in Kerala correctly expected a victory for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), but underestimated its dominance. The survey average put the LDF at around 82 seats, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) was projected to win around 56 seats.The final results, however, showed a much stronger performance by the LDF, which won 99 seats—17 more than projected. On the other hand, the UDF managed only 41 seats, falling short by 15.
Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls were largely accurate in predicting a DMK-led coalition win, though they slightly overestimated its margin. The average projection gave DMK+ around 166 seats compared to the actual 159.A. While the overall verdict was accurately predicted, the exit polls did not fully capture the resilience of the AIADMK-led bloc.
Assam
Assam stands out as one of the most accurately predicted elections. Exit polls estimated that the BJP-led NDA would win around 71 seats, while the Congress-led alliance was expected to get around 54 seats.The final results were remarkably close to this estimate. The NDA won 75 seats, just four more than projected, while the opposition alliance got 50, slightly less than expected.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, exit polls correctly predicted the NDA’s victory but overestimated its seat tally. The average projection gave the NDA around 21 seats, compared to the actual 16.The UPA’s performance more closely matched predictions, winning 9 seats as expected. But the biggest gap came from independents.
West Bengal
West Bengal was the biggest outlier, with exit polls failing to predict both the scale and clarity of the mandate. Polling averages suggested a close contest, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) winning around 155 seats and the BJP-led NDA 126 seats.In reality, the TMC won a landslide with 216 seats – 61 more than the estimate – while the NDA managed just 77 seats, falling short by 49. The Congress-led alliance was expected to win around 12 seats but ended up with only one.Taken together, the five states present a mixed picture of exit poll accuracy. While states like Assam and Tamil Nadu have seen reasonably accurate forecasts in terms of overall direction, Kerala and Puducherry have revealed gaps in projected margins and seat share. The West Bengal mandate reflects a clear miss.
