Moment of truth for India as Bangladesh votes; Hasina, resurgent Jamaat add to uncertainty | India News

Bangladesh will vote on Thursday in a parliamentary election that will likely have more far-reaching consequences for India than any such exercise in its neighborhood in the recent past. Ironically, with Sheikh HasinaNot on its Awami League Maidan, India’s best hope for a realistic reset in relations with Dhaka rests on a majority in the vanguard Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Hasina’s Bete Noir and a party with historically fraught ties to New Delhi. Wrong-footed by the July 2024 uprising that ousted longtime ally Hasina, India stepped up its outreach to the BNP, realizing that the then Khaleda Zia-led party offered the best choice for future legitimacy and stability in the country. Renewed engagement with BNP leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s offer of help for Zia’s treatment just before her death, and her letter to her son and current leader Tariq Rahman, sent through External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, cemented the initiative despite the impediments to Hasina’s presence in India.

In the absence of the banned Awami League, the election is expected to see a tight two-way contest between the BNP alliance and the other main bloc of 11 parties – including a curious mix of Islamists and Gen-Z revolutionaries – led by India’s arch-enemy Jamaat-e-Islami. The Jamaat joined forces with the National Citizens Party (NCP), a new political party made up of student leaders who led mass protests to oust Hasina. Apart from the election results, India will also closely follow the constitutional “July Charter” referendum which will be held alongside the general elections. By insisting on the introduction of a two-term limit for the prime minister, an upper house for legislative review, and an emphasis on Bangladeshi, not Bengali, identity, the referendum appears designed not only to prevent a return to “authoritarianism” but also to undermine India’s deep-rooted cultural and linguistic ties to the country. While India does not want to delay any outreach to a potential new government, given the importance of relations with Dhaka for its own security, and also Bangladesh’s growing reputation as a “swing state” coveted by powers like the US and China, any such exercise would bear in mind several key concerns. First of course is safety. Not allowing Indian insurgent groups in the northeast to use Bangladeshi territory against India will be high on India’s agenda with the new government, as the BNP-Jamaat government two decades ago was accused of harboring such groups. Stronger security cooperation, including intelligence sharing, can reduce concerns. Equally important is preventing Pakistani forces from using Bangladesh to target Indian interests. The interim government has already brought about dramatic changes in relations with Pakistan and efforts to strengthen defense and security ties through frequent visits of ISI officials to Dhaka will add to India’s security concerns. In the past, BNP-Jamaat governments were also accused of being Pakistan pivots. India will closely monitor Chinese intrusions into Bangladesh’s defense sector, including a recent deal to build drones not far from Indian territory. Safety and security of the 13-million-strong Hindu community will also be at the top of India’s agenda with the new government, evident from the way Modi himself has raised the issue on several occasions. India will look forward to continued cooperation to transport goods to the Northeast through Bangladeshi ports under the existing framework. However, for any outreach to be meaningful, India must first address the Hasina factor. BNP will press for the demand of handover of Hasina, who has been sentenced to death for crimes against humanity. According to a source in Dhaka, this is an issue related to public sentiment and India will not be seen as a reliable ally until Hasina is seen as a shield. While a potential BNP government is expected to aggressively pursue issues related to border killings, water sharing and even the revival of SAARC, India may also face a challenge in the form of a resurgent Jamaat that could win anywhere between 50 and 100 seats, more than ever before in its history. If that happens, the party could raise some serious concerns in India about its role not only as a formidable opposition but also as a potential ally of the BNP.