Monsoon likely to hit Kerala on May 26: IMD

New Delhi: Monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 26, the IMD said on Friday, forecasting the start of the monsoon season in India. Monsoon usually enters Kerala on June 1, give or take seven days.“This year, the southwest (summer) monsoon is likely to set in Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ± 4 days,” the Met department said, adding that its operational forecast of onset dates in Kerala in the last 21 years (2005-2025) has been found to be accurate within 20 years of 2015 or 2015 of 2018. Performance or distribution of monsoon.Last year, monsoon arrived in Kerala eight days earlier on May 24.IMD predicts ‘below normal’ rainfall this year amid risk of El NinoThe onset of monsoon in Kerala marks the arrival of the southwest monsoon in mainland India. It is an important indicator that marks the transition from hot and dry conditions to the rainy season.The Meteorological Department has already forecast ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year amid the growing risk of El Nino, which is associated with harsh summers and weak monsoons in South Asia.

Meanwhile, the IMD on Friday said conditions were favorable for the advance of southwest monsoon over South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and parts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours.IMD has been issuing working forecasts for monsoon onset dates in Kerala since 2005, using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days.The six predictors used in the models are: minimum temperature over northwest India, peak pre-monsoon rainfall over the southern peninsula, outward long wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean, outward long wave radiation (OLR) and lower wave radiation (OLR) over the southern peninsula. Winds blow over the equatorial northeast Indian Ocean.