Census effect: Cities will see ‘less crime’ next year | India News
In 2027, most Indian cities will show a decline in crime rates. It is a safe prediction to make. Historical precedent suggests that crime rates in India’s major cities decline rapidly in a census year.This is not due to good policing, but to a mathematical error – one that the National Crime Records Bureau notes in its fine print, but which is often missed in reports based on its data.NCRB updates the number of crimes every year. But for cities, it uses the last census population as the denominator to calculate the crime rate. This population figure will remain unchanged till the next census. So, recorded crimes may rise or fall each year, but the population used to calculate the rate remains frozen — usually for a decade, and this time for more than 15 years.This is why comparisons like “Delhi’s crime rate has increased” or “Delhi’s crime rate is higher than Mumbai’s” can be misleading unless the demographic basis is understood.
Go to Delhi. In the latest NCRB report, the population of Delhi city is still 1.6 crore as per 2011 census. But Delhi NCT has an expected population of 2.2 crores. Since Delhi City accounts for almost the entire NCT, the city still cannot have only 1.6 crore people if the NCT has 2.2 crore.This difference changes crime rates rapidly. The number of IPC offenses in Delhi and Delhi City is the same – 2,75,402 But since NCRB uses a different population base, Delhi’s crime rate is shown as 1,259 per lakh, while Delhi city’s rate is 1,688 per lakh – 34% higher.Here is an example of what happens when the population denominator is updated. As of the 2001 census, there were 35 cities in India with a population of over one million.
When the city’s population was updated in 2011, crime rates dropped in 27 of them. Kochi’s rate has come down from 1,898 per lakh to 1,636. Visakhapatnam, Bengaluru, Indore, Ahmedabad and Bhopal also saw declines of over 150 points. The steepest ‘fall’ has come in fast-growing cities, where older populations have become the oldest.This is the census effect. NCRB uses the same city population till the next census as official city-wise estimates are not available.
The juvenile crime rate may be said to be slightly lower in NCRB’s calculations
A constant denominator makes the rate look progressively inflated. When the census finally updates the population, the rate may drop dramatically even if the actual number of crimes does not.Similar issues appear in other NCRB departments. Rates of crimes against children, and crimes committed by juveniles, using India’s under-18 population from the 2011 census – 44.4 crore. But with declining fertility rates, the population under the age of 18 is now around 43.3 crore, according to UN estimates. That means NCRB’s calculations may have slightly underestimated juvenile crime rates and crimes against children.The opposite may be true for senior citizens. NCRB 2011 uses the senior citizen population – 10.4 crore people aged 60 and above. But India is aging, and UN estimates put the over-60 population at 15.7 crore in 2024. If so, NCRB is substantially increasing the crime rate against senior citizens.Lesson: Crime numbers and crime rates don’t always tell the same story. An annual count of the number of crimes. The rate depends greatly on the population used. In census years, that denominator changes — and with it, crime rates can improve overnight.
