Poll of exit polls 2026: Bengal cliffhanger, Congress in Kerala; status quo in Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry – predictions decoded | India News

In Assam, the BJP is predicted to take a hat-trick of victories with a big win against the struggling Congress in the northeastern state.While in Kerala, the CPM-led LDF could be on its way to ending the country’s only Left government. In PuducherryThe ruling NDA could retain power with a landslide victory against the Congress-DMK alliance.Exit polls released on Wednesday after polls concluded across four states and one union territory (UT) offered an inconclusive picture, with growing incumbency, rising rivals and new entrants likely to shape the election outcome simultaneously if the exit poll numbers hold.With results set for May 4, projections reflect both continuity and churn across regions, showing how state-specific dynamics continue to define voter behavior.

vote vote

Bengal nail biting!

In West Bengal, the numbers point to one of the fiercest battles in recent memoryWhile individual exit polls vary, the broad trend suggests a sharply polarized electorate almost evenly split between the TMC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has left no stone unturned to demolish Mamata’s citadel.A survey of surveys gave both parties around 145 seats in the 294-member assembly, with smaller parties and independents expected to secure only a marginal presence.Such projections indicate not just a competitive race, but a potential structural shift in state politics.If exit polls are to be believed, the BJP, once a peripheral force in West Bengal, appears to have consolidated its position as the main contender, undermining the dominance of the ruling TMC.At the same time, the TMC’s ability to maintain parity in these estimates suggests that the incumbent still commands significant grassroots support, especially in key districts where high voter turnout has been recorded.Voter turnout in both phases of the Bengal elections was around 90 percent, the highest since independence, reflecting intense voter engagement.Districts such as East Burdwan, Hooghly, Nadia and Howrah reported particularly strong participation, indicating that constituencies are widely recognized by voters across the region. High turnout in tightly contested elections often introduces an additional layer of unpredictability, making it difficult to predict the final outcome despite near-even estimates.

A surprise awaits in Tamil Nadu?

In Tamil Nadu, the election story is more nuanced, with Axis My India making a bold prediction.Most exit polls indicate that the DMK-led coalition under Chief Minister MK Stalin is set to retain power, albeit by a smaller margin than its 2021 performance.This will mark an important political moment that has historically been marked by alternating mandates between the two Dravidian chieftains. Holding power consistently would indicate a degree of stability and voter support that has often eluded incumbents in Tamil Nadu.However, the rise of the Tamilga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay, introduced a new twist to what was traditionally a bipolar contest.While most estimates stop short of putting TV ahead of established parties, they consistently indicate that the party is cutting into existing vote bases. Even conservative estimates suggest that TVK could influence the outcome in multiple constituencies by redistributing votes, while more optimistic estimates, such as Axis My India, point to a much more disruptive scenario where the party could win 98 to 120 seats.If such projections materialize, Tamil Nadu could witness a fundamental realignment of its political structure, moving away from the longstanding DMK-AIADMK duopoly to a more competitive, multi-polar structure. At the same time, projections for the AIADMK indicate a partial recovery but also highlight continuing organizational and leadership challenges that may limit its ability to fully capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment.

Status quo in Assam?

In contrast, Assam seems to be moving towards political continuity. Exit polls by multiple organizations converged on the clear results of the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma.Surveys suggest the BJP could get around 90 seats, significantly ahead of the Congress, which is projected to hold close to 30-seats, while the others account for a smaller portion of the assembly.These projections reinforce the BJP’s entrenched position in the state, where it has consistently expanded its organizational base and electoral reach over successive election cycles.For the Congress, the numbers underscore persistent structural challenges with limited evidence of a resurgence despite efforts to revamp its campaign strategy. The result, if it aligns with exit poll projections, would mark a third consecutive term for the BJP, further consolidating its dominance in the northeastern region.

Congress had predicted a Kerala victory

Of the five contests, Kerala presents perhaps the most analytically complex scenario. There are indications of a close fight between the Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front.While the polls indicate a slight advance for the UDF with around 72 seats in the 140-member assembly, the LDF is estimated to be not far behind with around 63 seats, indicating a narrow margin that could change depending on changes in electoral levels.At the same time, discrete estimates from agencies like Axis MyIndia and PMARQ highlight the uncertainty embedded in the Kerala competition.While Axis My India suggested a wider margin in favor of the UDF, PMARQ predicted a majority for the ruling LDF, indicating that the final result would remain open.This variability reflects Kerala’s unique electoral behavior, where small changes in vote share can translate into significant seat swings given the state’s competitive constituency landscape.The larger significance of the Kerala election lies in the departure from historical precedents. The state has traditionally alternated between the LDF and the UDF, but consecutive wins by the LDF in 2021 have broken this cycle.The 2026 election, therefore, tests whether the break from tradition represents a long-term shift or a temporary deviation. An LDF defeat would have ramifications beyond the state, potentially weakening the national footprint of the Left, for which Kerala is a major stronghold.The narrative of the campaign in Kerala has also evolved over time, dominated by issues including corruption allegations, economic concerns, administrative controversies and local grievances, resettlement challenges following the Wanad landslide and Sabarimala gold looting controversies in the early stages. These factors have contributed to more issue-driven contests, where voter decisions may depend as much on governance performance as on political alignment.

NDA again in Puducherry?

In Puducherry, exit polls suggest a clear result compared to some larger states The ruling NDA, locally led by the AINRC-BJP alliance, is tipped to retain power against the Congress-DMK alliance. The high voter turnout, recorded at around 89.83 percent, indicates strong public participation, while several constituencies witnessed closely contested contests.Tamilga Vetri Kazhagam’s entry has added an extra layer of competition in Puducherry, especially in constituencies with socio-political overlap with neighboring Tamil Nadu. However, despite these additional complications, most estimates suggest that the ruling coalition retains a decisive advantage, reflecting either sustained voter support or fragmentation within the opposition vote base.Across all five contests, a few common themes emerged, according to exit polls.First, the role of new political entrants, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, highlights the fluidity of voter preferences and the potential for rapid change in established political systems. Second, the varying degrees of power advantage or disadvantage across states reflect the importance of local governance and regional narratives, particularly in Bengal where the SIR has played an important role.As with all exit polls, these estimates must be interpreted with caution. While they provide a directional sense of electoral mood, they are not definitive predictors of the final outcome. Variations in sampling, methodology and last-mile voter behavior can produce results that differ from exit poll estimates.As the counting begins on May 4, the final verdict will determine whether the trends indicated by these projections have translated into actual election results or whether voters have sprung a surprise that defies pre-result expectations. Until then, exit polls serve as an informed but provisional view of politically dynamic moments under state and union territory elections.