Monsoon poor in every 7 out of 10 El Nino years | India News
About 70% of all El Niño years since 1980 have been accompanied by weak summer monsoons, showing that the link between Pacific conditions and the country’s June–September rains is one of the strongest of the global weather events affecting India’s monsoon season. The link gains importance in light of recent forecasts by US and European meteorological agencies that have raised the possibility of an El Niño setting in two to three months and said it is expected to be stronger than earlier forecasts suggested. It is in monsoon view, IMD Says seasonal rainfall is expected to be below normal.
TOI analyzed all El Niño years since 1980 – as defined by the US agency NCEP – and the corresponding seasonal performance. Out of 13 such years, monsoon was deficient or severely deficient (below 90% of long-term average) in seven, below normal (90-96%) in two, normal in three and excess in one. Among the two below-normal years, rainfall in 2018 was close to deficit (below 91%). According to the IMD, which uses a different metric to define El Niño years, there have been eight years in which six were deficient in monsoon, with one year (2002) when it was severely deficient (rainfall below 80% of LPA). Additionally, there are years like 2014, when increasing heat in the Pacific affected the monsoons even though El Niño ultimately did not develop. During an El Niño, there is an unusual warming of the surface waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Oceans, which causes changes in wind patterns that affect the weather around the world in a variety of ways. There are notable exceptions to normal monsoons despite El Nino. The most cited example is 1997 which saw one of the strongest El Niños on record, but India’s June-September rainfall was normal. That year, conditions Indian Ocean – a phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole – strongly favors good rainfall in India and is believed to counteract the effects of El Nino. There is a consensus among organizations worldwide that an El Niño is likely to form this summer. The European organization ECMWF projects a high chance of the condition developing in May-June, and that it will become a very strong event – some have dubbed it a ‘Super El Niño’ – by the end of the year.
