अल-नीनो और इथेनॉल की मार, भारत के चीनी एक्सपोर्ट पर कई साल लग सकता है ब्रेक – India sugar export news el nino impact ethanol demand sugar crisis
India is among the sugar producing countries of the world, but the picture may change in the coming years. Weather experts have predicted less rainfall this year due to the effect of El Nino. Due to the increasing focus of the government on ethanol, the use of sugarcane is also increasing. In such a situation, experts say that for at least three years, India may not have enough sugar left to sell to countries on a large scale.
Sugarcane cultivation in India largely depends on monsoon. According to the estimates of the Meteorological Department, this year the rainfall may be less than normal. Even in the month of June, many places have received less rainfall than normal. For this reason, some farmers are deciding to plant soybean, pigeon pea and other low water crops instead of sugarcane. If this continues then both sugarcane cultivation and production may be affected in the coming season.
ChinaMore need, less production
According to industry estimates, India’s sugar production in the 2025-26 season may be around 27.9 million tonnes. At the same time, about 2.85 crore tonnes of sugar is consumed every year in the country. This means that more sugar is needed than what is being produced in the country. For this reason, the stock of sugar in the mills may reduce to about 35 lakh tonnes, which will be one of the lowest levels in several decades.
ethanol The increasing demand is also a big reason
The government is emphasizing on increasing the amount of ethanol in petrol so that dependence on crude oil imports can be reduced. For this, the use of sugarcane and its related products in making ethanol is increasing. At present the demand for ethanol in the country is around 12 to 13 billion litres. In the coming years it may increase to 30 billion litres. In such a situation, a large part of sugarcane can be used in ethanol production instead of sugar.
Also read: Danger of El Nino! Warning of weak monsoon, severe heat wave and drought in India, WMO- NASA warned
Government’s eye on domestic supply
India was earlier the second largest exporter of sugar in the world. In the five years till 2022-23, the country would usually sell 68 lakh tonnes of sugar abroad every year, which was about 10% of the global sugar trade. Now the situation has changed. The priority of the government is to maintain the availability of sugar within the country. A strict stance regarding sugar export may be seen in the coming season also.
Might India also have to buy sugar?
Experts say that if El Nino If the impact of sugarcane is more and there is a big decline in sugarcane cultivation, then India may need to buy sugar from abroad in the coming years. India last imported sugar in 2016-17 and 2017-18. At that time such a situation had arisen due to drought and low production.
Also read: El Nino effect! Heat wave from Bihar to Maharashtra, so much rain in Mausinram-Cherrapunji, why?
Earlier in 2009 and 2010, India’s huge purchases had pushed up sugar prices across the world. Fear of less rainfall, increasing pressure on sugarcane cultivation and increasing demand for ethanol are emerging as big challenges for India’s sugar sector.
If weather forecasts prove correct, the country may have less surplus sugar left to sell abroad in the coming years. Not only this, if the situation worsens, India may have to consider importing sugar in future.
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