Defiance or sabotage? What AAP’s move in Kerala signals for Congress in assembly polls | India News
New Delhi: What the Aam Aadmi Party does not want Congress to win Kerala Assembly elections?The Bharat Bloc’s inability to form a united front ahead of the Kerala Assembly elections was brilliantly revealed after Aurobindo. KejriwalIts Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has released its list of candidates, signaling its intention for a full-scale fight across all 140 seats in Kerala.The southern state, recently renamed Keralam in a nod to its cultural and linguistic heritage, now stands as the latest battleground where AAP’s ambitions have clashed head-on with the Congress.Kerala’s electoral rhythm has long defied continuity, with voters mostly denying incumbents a second consecutive term. This pattern puts the main opposition Congress in a seemingly advantageous position in the race for power in Thiruvananthapuram.Still, AAP’s strong entry adds a twist. Is Kejriwal’s party simply expanding its footprint, or subtly complicating the Congress’s path to power? With limited organizational depth in the Malayalam-speaking state, AAP may not have significant relevance, but with Arvind Kejriwal and his party emerging from the shadow of Delhi’s liquor case, their presence may yet, albeit marginally, change Kerala’s political equation.The ruling Left, also part of the larger opposition, remains the primary challenger to the Congress, while BJP tail as a distant third. In this three-cornered contest, the AAP might not significantly hurt the Left or the BJP, but it could sway the Congress vote share enough to change the final verdict where elections are often decided.Is Delhi’s revenge being served in Kerala?2025 started with Aam Aadmi Party’s stunning defeat in Delhi. Earlier, the AAP and the Congress, reluctant allies, had decided to contest separately with the Congress, with little to lose, launching a bellicose campaign against the ruling Arvind Kejriwal-led system.The grand old party also found an opening as the Kejriwal cabinet came under the scanner in the Delhi liquor policy case, with agencies like the CBI and ED probing the matter. Several senior AAP leaders, including Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia, faced legal trouble, leading to the government functioning under the chief ministership of party colleague and loyalist Atish.While the AAP’s defeat ultimately came at the hands of the BJP, the Congress also played a significant role, if indirectly in preventing its Bharat Bloc ally from winning a fourth consecutive term.The “vote-slicing” factor proved crucial in several constituencies, including New Delhi, where Sandeep Dixit, son of former chief minister Sheila Dixit, ran against Kejriwal. Although he finished a distant third, the votes he got contributed to Kejriwal’s defeat and helped BJP’s Parvesh Verma emerge as the “giant killer”.Hypothetically, if those votes had gone to Kejriwal, the result could have been different. AAP’s tally fell sharply from 62 to 22 seats, while Congress again failed to open its account.The arduous effort to bring the AAP and the Congress into an arranged marriage to counter the BJP’s might in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, despite years of political bitterness, unfolded again in the 2025 assembly polls, reflecting a familiar pattern of rivalry.The AAP, which emerged from the India Against Corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, directly challenged the Sheila Dixit-led government and went on to dominate Delhi, reducing the Congress from a ruling force to utter insignificance.The Congress, once under the strong leadership of Sheila Dixit for 15 years, has failed to win a single seat in the last two assembly elections (2020 and 2025) and blanked in three consecutive Lok Sabha elections (2014, 2019 and 2024).Just as the Congress undermined the AAP’s chances in the Delhi Assembly, the AAP could now affect the Congress’s chances in states like Kerala, as it seeks to maintain its relevance among the national opposition.Alliance in conflictLok Sabha allies turned Assembly rivals, the battle between the estranged partners was anything but benign.At a rally, Arvind Kejriwal didn’t hold back: “The problem with the Congress is its sense of entitlement. They feel they have a divine right to lead the opposition because of their past, even when they have zero presence on the ground. They are not fighting with BJP; They are fighting regional parties who actually defeat the BJP. In Delhi, Congress is nothing more than a ‘vote harvester’ to help the BJP.The Congress, in turn, capitalized on the issues surrounding the Delhi Excise Policy case to hit AAP where it hurt the most.Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra led rallies across Delhi, branding Kejriwal and other AAP leaders “corrupt”. At one such rally, Rahul Gandhi remarked: “Kejriwal ji is lying again and again. Like Narendra Modi lies, Kejriwal also lies. There is not much difference between them. But I will tell you one thing—Kejriwal is probably more cunning and sophisticated than the Prime Minister in the way he misleads people.”A few weeks later, when a Delhi court acquitted Kejriwal and his colleagues in the liquor policy case, the Congress alleged that it was part of a larger BJP strategy of “Congress-free India”.Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera attacked the BJP, calling it a “willful nag” (shape-shifting snake) and accusing it of using central bodies as political tools.Kejriwal hit back, questioning the Congress’s claim and targeting its leadership: “Kejriwal went to jail? Did Robert Vadra go to jail? Sanjay Singh went to jail? Did Rahul Gandhi go to jail? Sonia Gandhi went to jail? What is Congress saying? Is there no shame in that?”To reduce the footprint of Congress?The Congress, an old party with roots in the freedom movement, has been struggling with weakness for over a decade.Outside of Delhi, it gradually lost ground across multiple states, allowing the BJP to extend its dominance in national politics. This decline has also opened up space for other players to challenge his position among the opposition.Among the states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala that are due to go to polls, Kerala appears to be one where the Congress still has a realistic chance of ousting the Left and returning to power. This makes it an important battlefield.In such a scenario, AAP’s entry could be seen as an attempt to further wound the Congress, creating a situation where it would struggle for relevance and limit the growth of the Congress.Kejriwal’s Kerala push, with candidates across constituencies, could help AAP position itself as a more serious national player. The state offers a relatively low-risk opportunity, keeping both the BJP and Congress in check, allowing AAP to contest without heavy stakes.A repeat of Gujarat in Kerala?From Delhi and Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal established a solid political foothold, successfully running a full-fledged government in Punjab under party colleague Bhagwant Mann, while also ruling the Union Territory of Delhi for over a decade with a commanding presence in the Assembly.But Aam Aadmi Party’s journey was not limited to Delhi. Its steady, often indirect outreach has positioned Kejriwal as an emerging alternative in national politics. He also entered Gujarat, long considered Narendra Modi’s stronghold.In Gujarat Abhishek, AAP polled more than 13 percent of the vote, significantly impacting the Congress. In the 2017 assembly elections, the Congress polled 42.2 percent, fighting hard against the BJP after Modi’s shift to national politics. However, AAP’s entry in 2022 disrupted that balance, reducing Congress’ vote share to 27.7 percent.While the AAP made an impressive debut with around 13 per cent votes, the BJP saw only a marginal increase – from around 50 per cent to 53 per cent.A similar pattern could emerge in Kerala, where the AAP may not emerge as a dominant force but could influence the outcome by reducing the Congress’ vote share, potentially benefiting the ruling Left – much like in Gujarat.To increase AAP’s footprint?AAP, since its birth in 2013 from the Anna movement, has been making relentless efforts to expand its footprint across India. So why not Kerala?Ambition for Arvind Kejriwal was never confined to Delhi. After breaking Sheila Dixit’s long-standing dominance, she quickly stepped onto the national stage against Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The contest in Varanasi may have ended in defeat, but it marked the arrival of Kejriwal as the main challenger.He got over 20 percent of the vote, enough to push the Congress to a distant third in Varanasi. Its candidate, Ajay Rai managed only around 7 percent.The Kerala expedition, then, was less exotic and more a continuation of that journey, an attempt to test the team’s reach in the far south.Beyond its strongholds in Delhi and Punjab, AAP has steadily entered new political terrain.In Gujarat, it emerged as a significant player with over 13 percent of the vote, largely at the expense of the Congress. In Goa, it secured nearly 7 percent and won two seats, again cutting into the Congress base.The party even marked its presence in Jammu and Kashmir, with Mehraj Malik winning from Doda.From the northern tip of Jammu and Kashmir to the southern tip of Kerala, AAP’s new interest.Kerala of Rahul, Priyanka and TharoorKejriwal’s entry into Kerala carries symbolic significance, especially for the Congress, for which the state has become an important political anchor in recent years. In moments of crisis, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, both scions of the Gandhi family, focused on Kerala.In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi lost his own Amethi seat, it was Wanad that gave him a landslide victory. He returned to Wanad again in 2024, winning comfortably, although he ultimately chose to retain Rae Bareli.“I was a stranger to you yet you believed in me, you embraced me with unconditional love and affection. It doesn’t matter what political formation you support, what community you come from or what religion you believe in or what language you speak,” Rahul said.“I am sad, but I am comforted because my sister Priyanka will continue to represent you. I am sure she will do a great job as your MP if you decide to give her a chance. My central promise to both you and the people of Rae Bareli is that we will fight and defeat the hatred and violence that is rampant in the country,” he added.Stepping out of WANAD, Rahul Gandhi thanked voters and paved the way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s electoral debut from the same constituency. He went on to secure a landslide victory in the by-election, further cementing the family’s links with the state.After his win, Priyanka said, “I thank the people of Wanad for giving me the honor to represent them. It’s a testament to the hard work my brother has done there, their love for him and their faith in me. I think it’s a great honor, and I will absolutely respect it.”Apart from the Gandhis, one of the prominent national faces of the Congress in Kerala is Shashi Tharoor, a three-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram.Against this backdrop, Kejriwal’s Kerala push is not just another electoral test, but a move that could unsettle established equations and complicate the political calculus for entrenched players in the state.Kejriwal vs Rahul?After the formation of the Bharat Bloc, the BJP-led NDA retained power at the Centre, with Rahul Gandhi becoming the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha.Even if Rahul ascends to that position, questions remain about his leadership ambitions. Within the opposition bloc, differences began to emerge, and AAP’s position was often less aligned with that.AAP has, at various points, tried to project Kejriwal as a possible national rival to Narendra Modi, subtly sidestepping the prospect of Rahul Gandhi.With repeated electoral debacles thanks to the Congress and AAP’s aggressive expansion, the rivalry in the opposition space may no longer be just against the BJP, but also among its own key players.
