केरल और असम में मुसलमानों का मसीहा कौन, बदरुद्दीन अजमल का असल इम्तिहान – muslim politics assam kerala elections muslim league first choice aiudf badruddin ajmal ntcpkb
The noise of campaign for Assam, Kerala and Puducherry assembly has stopped. Voting is on April 9 in these three states. In Assam, there is a contest between Congress and BJP, while in Kerala, there is a direct fight between the Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF. Muslim voters are very important in both these states, due to which Muslim based parties will also have to face a political test?
Even though the Muslim population in the country is between 14 to 15 percent, it is between 27 percent in Kerala and 35 percent in Assam. In this way, Muslim voters are very important in both the states, seeing this Muslim parties have also put in all their strength to show their political strength.
Considering the political power and importance of Muslim votes, the litmus test is for All India Muslim League in Kerala elections and Maulana Badruddin Ajmal’s party AIUDF in Assam. In Kerala, the Muslim League is a part of the Congress-led UDF, while in Assam, the AIUDF and the Congress are at loggerheads.
Badruddin Ajmal’s ordeal in Assam
722 candidates are trying their luck on 126 seats in the Assam Assembly elections, in which Badruddin Ajmal’s party is contesting only on 27 seats. AIUDF is trying its luck mostly on seats in the lower Assam region, which is adjacent to Bangladesh. Muslim voters are decisive here. There are 50 seats in this region, out of which in 2021, NDA won 23 seats and Congress-AIUDF won 27 seats. This time both are contesting elections separately, due to which Ajmal has to fight with BJP as well as Congress.
Dhubri, barpetaThere is a large number of Muslim voters in Goalpara region, where the contest is between Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s party, because last time AIUDF had won 16 seats, but the situation has changed this time. In such a situation, Badruddin Ajmal had to call Asaduddin Owaisi and organize a rally to get the support of Muslim votes.
Badruddin’s political challenge in Assam
Seeing the political importance of Muslim votes in Assam, Maulana Badruddin Ajmal formed ‘All India United Democratic Front’ (AIUDF) in 2005. Ajmal started his politics as an advocate for the rights of Muslim minorities, especially Muslims of Assamese-speaking and Bengali origin, and was the MP from Dhubri from 2009 to 2024.
In the 2006 assembly elections, AIUDF had 10 MLAs, which increased to 18 in 2011. In 2016, success was achieved on 13 seats and then in 2021, success was achieved on 16 seats. In this way, every year, AIUDF’s support base has increased and the party has become stronger, but in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Badruddin Ajmal’s politics suffered a serious blow, when he lost his own seat. Congress seems to be gaining hold on Muslim votes again, due to which the 2026 elections are being considered very important for Ajmal.
Who will become the first choice of Muslims in Assam?
The Muslim population in Assam is approximately 34 percent, which played an important role in 32 out of the total 126 seats in the state. In 2021, 31 Muslim MLAs had won, but the game of Muslim seats has changed in delimitation. Muslim voters are now left with a decisive role in only 22 seats instead of 32. Both Congress and Badruddin Ajmal have their eyes fixed on the Muslim vote bank.
Muslim voters are the strength of Badruddin Amjal and Congress’s eyes are also fixed on this vote bank. In 021, Badruddin Ajmal and Congress had contested the elections together, but this time both are trying their luck separately. In such a situation, who will be the first choice of Muslim voters is a big question. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it has been seen that Muslims have become disillusioned with Maulana Badruddin Ajmal. In a direct fight between Congress and BJP, it is important which side the Muslim voter will take?
What will happen to Muslim League in Kerala?
Kerala is the state with the largest population of Muslims in South India. Kerala has about 27 percent Muslim population, which is more than 80 lakh. Muslim voters are considered very important in Malappuram, Kozhikode and Kannur districts. The Muslim community of Kerala is known for its educational achievements and active participation in the socio-economic development of the state. Muslim politics in Kerala is mainly centered around the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and is considered to have a good hold.
Muslim League is contesting elections in Kerala along with Congress-led UDF. Out of 140 seats in Kerala, Muslim League has fielded its candidates on 26 seats and is supporting Congress and other allies on the remaining seats. Muslim League is trying its luck only on Muslim dominated seats of Malappuram, Kozhikode and Kasargod districts of Kerala. All these areas are traditional voters of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), an ally of the Congress-led UDF.
Political base of Muslim League in Kerala
Since 1962, it has had at least two MPs in every Lok Sabha and has been opening its account in every assembly election. Out of 140 seats in the Kerala Assembly, there are 32 Muslim MLAs. Of these, 15 are from the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), nine from Left parties, three from Congress, three independents and one each from Indian National League and National Secular Conference.
There are a total of 43 seats in Kerala where Muslim voters can make or break the political equation. For the last several decades, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has maintained its dominance among the Muslims in Kerala. Due to alliance with Congress, there is no dispersion of Muslim votes. Malappuram, a Muslim-dominated district in Kerala, has always been a stronghold of IUML. This time in the fight between UDF and LDF in Kerala, UDF seems to have the political upper hand. In such a situation, it is being considered politically convenient for the Muslim League.
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