यूपी चुनाव 2027 में दलित केंद्रित पार्टियों के लिए कितनी जमीन बची, वोटर ट्रेंड क्या कहता है – up dalit politics bsp mayawati bsp bjp modi chirag paswan opnm1
Mayawati is no longer the only messiah of Dalits in Uttar Pradesh. This is not being said on the basis of any assumption or any narrative, but on the basis of data. Now if Dalits do not vote for Mayawati, then who gets their votes?
Only the one who wins will get the votes. BJP is in power in UP, and Samajwadi Party is in opposition. Meaning, most of the Dalit votes are also being divided mainly between BJP and Samajwadi Party. talk Mayawati If we talk about BSP, in 2022 it had won less seats than Congress. Two Congress MLAs were elected, and only one from BSP.
There is already a competition between BJP and Samajwadi Party to capture Mayawati’s vote bank. After the success in the 2024 general elections, Bhim Army’s Chandrashekhar Azad has also emerged as a contender – and the parties doing Dalit politics outside UP are also preparing vigorously for the upcoming elections.
Dalit voter trend in Uttar Pradesh
The decline in the support that BSP has been getting from Dalits in Uttar Pradesh is quite surprising. Whether she gets seats in Lok Sabha or Assembly or not, but if the vote share remains intact then it is not a matter of much concern for Mayawati. BSP, which came to power on its own in 2007, has registered a decline of 20 percent so far in its vote share. While BSP had got more than 30 percent votes in the 2007 UP assembly elections, by the time of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the figure reached 9.3 percent.
2007 In the UP Assembly elections, BSP won 206 out of 403 seats with 30.43 percent vote share and formed the government with absolute majority. In which BSP got about 65 percent votes of Dalits.
2012 If we look at the election results, after running the government for five years, the total vote share of BSP had come down to 25.91. In which the votes of Dalits decreased by about 20 percent compared to the previous elections. And Mayawati could get only 48 percent Dalit votes in her favor. After BSP, Samajwadi Party got 24 percent votes, Congress 15 percent and BJP 8 percent – but gradually this pattern kept changing.
2017 It was far from possible for BSP to come to power in the elections; its vote share also declined to 22.2 percent. BJP made the biggest dent in Dalit votes. Especially in non-Jatav Dalit votes.
2022 When Yogi Adityanath in the elections Akhilesh Yadav At one end, Mayawati was left heartbroken with a vote share of 12.7 percent. Due to their indifference the Dalit vote got completely scattered between SP and BJP.
Who’s in the race for 2027
Dalit community constitutes about 21 percent of the population in Uttar Pradesh. BSP founder Kanshi Ram and later Mayawati, along with giving voice to the Dalit voters in UP, also proved their strength by playing a decisive role in the elections. In 2007, Mayawati also formed the BSP government thanks to social engineering – but then the assembly elections of 2012, 2017 and 2022 saw a major change in the voting pattern, which was influenced by caste alliances as well as economic issues and ideological political mobilization.
BSP’s performance in Uttar Pradesh was the worst in the 2022 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and it has played an important role in encouraging other political parties. Mayawati may not be ready to hand over Kanshi Ram’s legacy to nephew Akash Anand or anyone else, but Nagina MP Chandrashekhar Azad has staked claim through Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram).
Chandrashekhar Azad is from UP only, not from Bihar Chirag Paswan Along with Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Republican Party of India (Athawale) from Maharashtra and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) are also preparing to enter the UP election field keeping in mind the Dalit vote bank.
1. The victory of Chandrashekhar Azad from Nagina Lok Sabha seat of UP in 2024 was almost the same as that of Pappu Yadav from Purnia of Bihar. Just as Pappu Yadav got behind the scenes help from Congress to win, Chandrashekhar Azad also got similar indirect support from BJP. Mayawati’s nephew Akash Anand stood firm in Nagina, as did Tejashwi Yadav in Purnia – and both also proved unsuccessful.
Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) had contested 133 seats in the 2022 assembly elections, but is now preparing to contest on all 403 seats in UP. Then Chandrashekhar Azad himself was contesting against Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath from Gorakhpur.
Keeping 2027 in mind, Chandrashekhar Azad, like Mayawati, is also trying to get votes other than Dalits. Chandrashekhar Azad has formed fraternal organizations in all the assembly constituencies, which include 13 different groups of EBC-OBC. A separate brotherhood organization has been formed for Muslim votes.
2. Chirag Paswan, who contested alone in the 2022 UP Assembly elections, is trying for an electoral alliance with BJP this time. In the 2022 elections, LJP (RV) had fielded candidates on 120 seats. Despite contesting the elections, it could not win even a single seat, and the vote share was also only 0.2 percent.
However, LJP’s argument is important that the party was suffering the pain of division at that time, but its strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 Bihar Assembly is pointing towards better performance in the coming elections. Regarding UP, a senior LJP leader said while talking to Indian Express, we are focusing on consolidating Pasi and Paswan votes in our favor, which constitute 10 percent of the population… We believe that Jatavs and Ravidasis will keep their faith in BSP, while angry voters will move towards Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram).
3. Two political parties doing Dalit politics in Maharashtra also seem desperate to enter the fray in UP. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, which went with the Congress in the Maharashtra Municipal Corporation elections, is busy in building a grassroots organization in Uttar Pradesh. Ramdas Athawale’s RPI (A) is also trying to form an alliance with BJP in UP like Chirag Paswan. RPI had also tried to form an alliance with BJP in 2022, but when things did not work out, it supported it. Similarly, VBA had supported Samajwadi Party by not contesting elections in 2022.
Relevance and possible future of BSP
Mayawati has recently made it clear that BSP will not form an alliance with any political party in the 2027 UP Assembly elections, and will contest the elections alone. Taking aim at political opponents, Mayawati said, these days there are selfish discussions going on about AI being the key to success… Even in the media world, on some pretext or the other, the illusion is being spread about BSP contesting the assembly elections under its leadership… This is fake news… It has been said many times in public that BSP will contest the elections alone.
Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav can also be the target of BSP leader. Expressing hope of strengthening brotherhood and cooperation among the people through PDA, Akhilesh Yadav had said, the relations between Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party are continuously getting stronger, and will deepen further.
1. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party was able to win only one assembly seat in the 2022 UP elections, and its vote share declined by more than five percent in five years. BSP’s vote percentage in 2022 is almost equal to the population of Jatav-Ravidasi Dalits in UP, who are considered the main support base of BSP.
2. By the time of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, this main voter base of BSP was also seen weakening. BSP could not win even a single seat and its vote percentage dropped from 19.43 percent in 2019 to 9.3 percent – BSP fought the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with Samajwadi Party and Jayant Choudhary’s party RLD, and also won 10 seats.
In such a situation, when Dalit political parties outside UP are preparing to challenge Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, while drawing attention to the strength of the old relationship between Dalit and socialist politics, is saying, once BR Ambedkar and Ram Manohar Lohia together tried to give a new direction to politics, but the circumstances and political environment did not give them enough time – Mayawati now does not like such things at all.
And, during the 2022 UP assembly when Amit Shah in 2024 Narendra Modi Yogi was appealing to the people to ensure victory in the elections to make Adityanath the Prime Minister again. Regarding Mayawati, he had said that the relevance of BSP is not going to end.
Dalit politics of BJP and Modi
In the 2017 UP assembly elections, when Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party had tried their best to return to power, BJP, with a major upset, sidelined both of them and formed the government. Not only did Dalit votes play an important role in BJP’s victory, the decisive role of Dalit voters has been felt earlier also. Due to the welfare schemes of the Central Government, BJP had successfully captured non-Jatav votes also. Modi government put forward its priority on the Supreme Court’s decision on Dalit law. He tried his best to show on every aspect related to the sensitivity of Dalits that today there is no one more well-wisher of Dalits than him. Modi goes ahead in the reservation debate and says that there will be no compromise on reservation as long as he is alive. Every year on Ravidas Jayanti, he visits Ravidas’ birthplace or Punjab as a remembrance, and is seen touching the feet of great men respected for Dalits. These steps of Modi have changed the image of BJP, which was once called the ‘party of Brahmins and Baniyas’. The result is that-
1. On the orders of the Supreme Court, the number of reserved seats in UP was increased to 86 in 2017. There were already 84 seats for Scheduled Caste, but two seats were increased for Scheduled Tribe in Sonbhadra. And, BJP had then won 70 seats, including one seat of Sonbhadra.
2. If we look at the reserved seats, in UP elections 2022, BJP alliance again got the maximum votes of Dalits. BJP won 65 reserved seats.
Now even Mayawati’s own Jatav vote has started slipping, but in 2017, non-Jatav vote was seen shifting towards BJP. Then, out of 84 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes in UP, 69 went to BJP’s account, while Mayawati got only 2 seats – because caste politics was left behind in BJP’s agenda of Hindutva and nationalism.
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